US dollar strengthens ahead of expected Fed rate cut

NEW YORK :The U.S. dollar strengthened against most major currencies on Tuesday following better-than-expected retail sales data that seemed to support a less aggressive stance by the Federal Reserve, which is widely expected to deliver its first interest rate cut in more than four years.
Commerce Department data showed on Tuesday that U.S. retail sales unexpectedly rose 0.1 per cent in August, suggesting that the economy remained on solid footing through much of the third quarter.
The Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee will give its interest rate decision at the conclusion of its meeting on Wednesday after which Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference. The last Fed rate cut was in March 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic.
“I think like all the markets at this point are hostage to this FOMC meeting tomorrow,” said Marvin Loh, senior global market strategist at State Street in Boston.
“Retail sales were okay. It certainly doesn’t show that there should be an imminent rush to have supersized cuts and it would be somewhat unprecedented for the Fed to really panic in rate cuts given where the market is at this point.”
Against the yen, the dollar rose 0.87 per cent to 141.830 after initially weakening following the retail sales data.
The euro was down 0.10 per cent to $1.112125, not far from the year’s high of $1.1201. Against the Swiss franc, the dollar was up 0.15 per cent to 0.8460.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, gained 0.199 per cent at 100.90.
Fed funds futures show the chance of a 50 basis point rate cut stood at 63 per cent, against 30 per cent a week ago, while the chances of a 25 basis point cut was at 37 per cent. The odds have narrowed sharply after media reports revived the prospect of a more aggressive easing.
Other economic data on Wednesday appeared to provide support for the Fed to be less aggressive in cutting rates. U.S. business inventories, a key component of gross domestic product, posted a better-than-expected gain of 0.3 per cent in July while factory output rebounded in August.
“Overall, the market is pricing in numerous rate cuts over the next several months and there are those voices that suggest that maybe the market has gotten ahead of itself,” said Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer at Merk Investments in Pal Alto, California.
The Bank of Japan is expected to keep policy steady on Friday but signal that further interest rate hikes are coming, perhaps turning the next meeting in October into a live one.
The Bank of England is also expected to retain interest rates at 5 per cent when it meets on Thursday, although markets have priced in a nearly 36 per cent chance of another cut.
Sterling – the best performing G10 currency this year with a 3.41 per cent rise on the dollar – has risen thanks to signs of resilience in Britain’s economy and stickiness in inflation. It was last down 0.37 per cent at $1.31665.
Chinese markets are closed for the Mid-Autumn Festival break until Wednesday, though the yuan was up 0.16 per cent at 7.1090 in offshore trade.
The Canadian dollar was up 0.04 per cent at $1.35935. The Australian and New Zealand dollars bought $0.67595 and $0.61900 respectively.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 5.00 per cent to $60,544.00. Ethereum rose 3.29 per cent to $2,349.00.
Currency bid prices at 17              
September​ 06:54 p.m. GMT
Description RIC Last U.S. Close Previous Session Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid
Dollar index 100.91 100.7 0.21 per cent -0.45 per cent 101 100.56
Euro/Dollar 1.1121 1.1133 -0.11 per cent 0.75 per cent $1.1146 $1.1111
Dollar/Yen 141.87 140.59 0.91 per cent 0.59 per cent 141.93 140.36
Euro/Yen 1.1121​ 156.53 0.79 per cent 1.38 per cent 157.87 156.06
Dollar/Swiss 0.8461 0.8449 0.15 per cent 0.53 per cent 0.8478 0.843
Sterling/Dollar 1.3163 1.3216 -0.4 per cent 3.44 per cent $1.3229 $1.3147​
Dollar/Canadian 1.3593 1.3587 0.06 per cent 2.55 per cent 1.3617 1.3581
Aussie/Dollar 0.6756 0.6752 0.07 per cent -0.9 per cent $0.6769 $0.6742
Euro/Swiss 0.9409 0.9403 0.06 per cent 1.32 per cent 0.9422 0.9383
Euro/Sterling 0.8447 0.8423 0.28 per cent -2.55 per cent 0.8454 0.8419
NZ Dollar/Dollar 0.6186 0.6201 -0.21 per cent -2.07 per cent $0.6211 0.6179
Dollar/Norway 10.5965​ 10.5865 0.09 per cent 4.55 per cent 10.623 10.5601
Euro/Norway 11.7859 11.786 0 per cent 5.01 per cent 11.8099 11.7553
Dollar/Sweden 10.1823 10.1687 0.13 per cent 1.15 per cent 10.2075 10.1504
Euro/Sweden 11.3252 11.322 0.03 per cent 1.8 per cent 11.3465 11.306